Many futurists thinkers are so intelligent and so far off in the future in their thoughts that they tend to leave all of their followers, readers, and listeners in the dust. Predicting the future 5 to 10 years out is not all that hard to do. Accurate prediction of five years out is fairly easy, and predicting 10 years out can be done if you watch the macro or micro trends surrounding various industries, watching how they all come together and interact.
Predicting 20 years in the future is rather difficult as the author of the "Black Swan" has so eloquently stated. But this does not mean it's impossible, and if such futurist prediction is done correctly, and carefully explained to the reader then everything seems to work out right and the futurist can make a compelling argument. Even if that "potential future" will never come to be and most everyone knows it.
The Real Challenge is;
Invariably what ends up happening is a futurist will talking about things that are 30 to 50 years in the future. They might even start talking about Star Trek transporters, wormholes space travel, and even time travel. It's not that all this won't someday be figured out; it's that the viewer of such predictions cannot wrap their minds around it.
If you get that far out into the future people just won't know what to make of you. So, all futurists need to beware of leaving other human minds in the dust when making these types of predictions, otherwise they won't know what to think of you. Interestingly enough, most things do not change that fast, after all besides the Internet, and mobile technology life is pretty much the same as it was 20 years ago.
Do you see that point? However, in the last five years the changes in the Internet have been astounding, and most of the predictions were incorrect. Think about that for a second, and you will soon come to the realization of why this topic is so important.
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